College Was the Default Answer, But the Data Says it’s Time to Ask Better Questions

Over more than 25 years working in education and EdTech, I’ve heard countless questions and concerns about education and career decisions. I’ve also watched the options available to students and workers change considerably. Very recently, two major studies put data behind some of the patterns I’ve been seeing. Together, they raise important questions about how we help people choose the right education and career pathway for their circumstances.

How Higher Education is Changing

The Hechinger Report published a piece that puts hard numbers on something a lot of people might already sense. There have been more than 320 instances of college and university layoffs, program cuts, and closings since January 2024. The United States now ranks 15th and 17th in degree attainment among 25- to 34-year-olds, respectively, down from second overall just 20 years ago. About 70% of Americans say higher education is going in the wrong direction.

I want to be clear: This is not an argument against college. A degree is still the right call for many people, it was for me. However, millions of families were told college was the only reliable path to a better life. That’s simply not true for everyone, and access to that system has never been equal in the first place.

That’s where education deserts come in. Millions of Americans live too far from a four-year institution to make attending practical. Students have to relocate and take on additional costs, commute long distances, or forgo the degree altogether.

The Map of College ROI Looks Very Different Depending on Where You Live

The second piece that caught my eye comes from the Strada Education Foundation and adds a layer I think matters just as much. Their research found the share of bachelor’s degree holders earning more than the high school median in their state declined in 37 states over the past decade.

The return on a degree isn’t shrinking evenly. It’s shrinking fastest in the places where people have the least flexibility. In Washington, D.C., 90% of college graduates out-earn their high school-educated peers. In Wyoming, that number falls below 70%. In California, graduates on the coast are significantly more likely to see their degree pay off than those living inland.

The labor markets that reward degrees are concentrated in metro areas, and most people can’t simply relocate to access them.

So we have two problems that are increasingly difficult to separate: In some places, higher education is becoming harder to access. In others, the financial return on that education is becoming less certain.

Behind Every Statistic is Someone Trying to Figure Out Their Next Move

Put those two things together, and you get an education access problem that is about more than geography. Communities that were already underserved can lose both educational opportunities and the economic mobility those opportunities are supposed to create.

Throughout my career, I’ve encountered students and career changers trying to make these decisions in very practical terms. They may live in rural North Carolina or West Virginia or inland California and are simply trying to figure out the best path forward.

They may not have a four-year university nearby. They may not be able to relocate. And they may not want to spend four years and tens of thousands of dollars pursuing a degree without knowing whether the local labor market will reward the effort and the resources spent.

One Field Where Geography Stops Being the Deciding Factor

This is also why I think we need to broaden the way we talk about postsecondary education. A four-year degree is one pathway, but shorter-term, skills-based training and industry credentials can offer another, particularly in fields where employers value demonstrated technical skills.

IT is one example. Training in areas such as cybersecurity and networking can often be completed in months rather than years, potentially giving people a faster route to new skills and credentials without requiring them to relocate for school. And because some technology roles can be performed remotely, workers may also have access to opportunities beyond their immediate local labor market.

That doesn’t make IT training the right answer for everyone any more than a four-year degree is the right answer for everyone. But it illustrates why geography, cost, time to completion and the labor market someone will actually enter should all be part of the education conversation.

The Better Question to Ask

For people trying to figure out their next move, the better question may no longer be simply, “Should I go to college?” It may be: “What education or training pathway gives me the best opportunity based on where I live, what I can afford and the career I actually want?”

For millions of Americans, answering that question may mean looking beyond the pathway that was once treated as the default.

This is where I think IT training can serve as a bridge between these two problems.